Back again….the one and only: Ranting Andy—-> enjoy
As a decade-long Precious Metals investor, I anticipated a proliferation of TOP CALLERS this weekend, who as always will not only be wrong in very short order, but will cost their readers, on a net basis, significant losses. TELLING UNSOPHISTICATED INVESTORS (i.e. 99% of the populace) TO TRADE ANY MARKET GUARANTEES LOSSES (capital losses, increased tax burdens, etc.), but PARTICULARLY in the PM markets where the gold/silver Cartel is constantly lurking, looking to SCARE you out of your positions with vicious PAPER raids, PARTICULARLY when gurus such as RICHARD RUSSELL are telling you “we could see some short-term weakness here.”
With gold making an all-time high weekly close on some of the most violently bullish fundamentals ever (not to mention a MASSIVELY BULLISH breakout in essentially all global currencies), I have read no less than a half-dozen TOP CALLERS from our own camp, let alone the likely dozens emanating from the Washington/Wall Street/London triumvirate of EVIL. It truly is amazing how, after all these years of TOP CALLING, our camp can be putting out MANIPULATED charts as proof that gold is ready to “sharply decline.” Or, in many cases, not give ANY proof at all, simply saying “it’s had a nice run lately, and thus needs to decline.” Heck, I had a nervous gold investor email today asking about Robert Prechter’s new bearish call on gold, the same Robert Prechter who has been as bearish on gold for the past decade as Kitco’s “wolf in wolf’s clothing” Jon Nadler!
HUH? A “nice run?” You mean this month’s gold increase from $1,600 to $1,746, where it closed on Friday?
So a measly 9% gain constitutes “time for a breather”?
Not to mention that silver is DOWN 1% in August, the HUI is up a WHOPPING 20 POINTS, or less than 4%, and the TSX Venture Exchange (the best proxy of junior mining stocks) is DOWN 8% this month!
Moreover, this “nice run” happened to coincide with the catastrophic U.S. debt ceiling debacle, a nearly negative U.S. GDP print, the Fed stating it will keep interest rates at ZERO for the next two years, S&P downgrading U.S. Treasury debt, credit spreads EXPLODING on government bonds in Spain, Italy, and France, rioting in London and Tel Aviv, the U.S. government threatening to initiate war with Syria, and the lowest U.S. Consumer Confidence print since May of 1980!
And oh yeah, we’re at the beginning of the largest seasonal gold buying period of the year (see below, and also note that the “summer doldrums”, as suggested by this chart, turned out to be far from dull).
I theorized in June that the Gold Cartel is in TERMINAL decline, and subsequently the typical summer weakness (i.e. the Cartel has fewer buyers to contend with) turned out to be massive summer STRENGTH. On that note, let’s see what happened to gold since my June 25th RANT, “SUMMER DOLDRUMS – THE BIGGEST LOAD OF C—P EVER.”
And by the way, if anyone concludes that the Fall will be weak for gold because this chart is no longer valid, they are going to be VERY disappointed. The peak buying season (Indian wedding festivals, Christmas, etc.) will still occur, only this time with vastly higher global investment demand as well. Given how fast the global financial system is deteriorating, it is difficult for me to believe $2,000 will not be challenged by year-end, no matter how much MANIPULATION the Cartel attempts.
Oh yeah, the Cartel has reached “MANIPULATION SATURATION”, per my July 27th RANT. In other words, for those carefully OBSERVING the gold market, ANY AND ALL attempts to drive the price down have COMPLETELY and UTTERLY failed, usually within days if not hours. So why would anyone be “worried” about gold now, just as we enter the peak gold buying season (not to mention the most fragile for global financial markets) with the GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM on the verge of TERMINAL COLLAPSE and gold finally starting to show its traditional (pre-Manipulation) negative correlation with stock markets?
Not to mention, has anyone seen Friday’s COT report, showing the Commercials MASSIVELY covering their gold and silver shorts into a rising market (as of Tuesday afternoon)? I don’t think I’ve seen the Commercials act like this since I started watching this sector in 2002, but this year alone we have seen MULTIPLE such occasions, as even JP Morgan and the other Cartel henchman at times have exhibited FEAR, DESPITE knowing they have unlimited U.S. GOVERNMENT FUNDS behind them to continue naked shorting PAPER silver!
Sorry for going off on a tangent, let’s get back to Richard Russell , SYMBOLIC OF THE COUNTLESS GOLD TOP CALLERS I’ve read this weekend.
As my readers know well, he has been one of my mentors for years, one of my earliest influences when I joined the gold-buying ranks in 2002. I read his column religiously until roughly 2006, at the edge of my seat each day the way I am now reading the work of GATA, Jim Willie, and ZeroHedge. However, around 2007 I realized that Russell, while BRILLIANT in his macroeconomic analysis, had failed to see that his beloved Dow Theory was a “barbarous relic”, made obsolete by a combination of overuse and, more importantly, GOVERNMENT MARKET MANIPULATION.
The reason my missives are followed is because I am not afraid to anger anyone, particularly icons of the “good guys”. Russell is dead-on in his analysis of what is to become of America, but his writings will only serve to confuse readers and, ultimately, cause near-term (and potentially long-term) losses.
For instance, here is his commentary from this weekend, which has been blasted around the world via the internet.
The P&F chart of gold (each box is worth 10 points) remains bullishly intact. So far, we do not have a three-box reversal. But gold is becoming extended and overbought.
I don’t get it. If the chart is bullishly intact, why is it overbought?
The next nearby target is $2,000 for gold. Central banks, which have been ne
If the “next nearby target” is $2,000/oz (which, by the way, would likely yield $50+ silver and exploding PM stocks), why would you possibly scare readers into thinking a material correction is imminent, ESPECIALLY when global central banks are now buying gold?
I expect gold to be erratic and unstable like the rest of the market, and it will take guts to sit with gold over the coming weeks.”
When is the last time gold was NOT “erratic and unstable”? And WHY, given all that is going on in the world (the aforementioned list plus numerous other items) will it “take guts” to own the only true safe haven in the world? If you mean an expected increased in CARTEL ATTACKS, then just say it (although what a silly point that would be, given that CARTEL ATTACKS are UNENDING, EVERY SECOND of EVERY TRADING DAY). Of course, Russell has a history of saying ONE DAY ‘someone in high places wants gold down’ and THE NEXT DAY forgetting what he said, going right back to his charts with useless commentary like ‘the charts say gold is ready to fall’.
At $2,000, the next objective would be $2,500, and from there $5,000, and from $5,000 — $10,000.
Wow! So gold’s “nearby target” is $2,000, or 15% above the current level (and again, representing a MAJOR milestone), and not only that it will then rise to $10,000! Yet gold is “extended and overbought” and we need to “have guts to hold it.” Yes, we have made massive profits holding gold, the fundamentals are screaming for much higher prices (which you concur with), but we all should be TERRIFIED about what’s coming soon, not to mention as the seasonally strongest period of gold demand is commencing.
And oh yeah, the MASSIVELY MANIPULATED Dow (last week was the most obvious PPT prop job since 9/11) has fallen a WHOPPING 9% this month amidst the commencement of the collapse of America and most of its major trading partners, but what do Russell’s MANIPULATED charts tell him?
I‘m saying that the bottom of the correction is IN, and that the secondary trend of the market has finally turned bullish.
The perfect non-sensical commentary, the same garbage I’ve been reading since 2002 from the so-called good guys. Long-term bullish and short-term bearish on gold, care of the MANIPULATED charts. Or in this case, he says he’s both near-term bullish AND bearish! So for all of Russell’s readers, SELL GOLD and BUY THE DOW!
Once again, I LOVE Richard Russell for what he has represented this past decade, but I call a spade a spade. This is the same typical TOP-CALLING drivel I’ve read from countless “good guys” who completely ignore fundamentals and rely unwaveringly on MANIPULATED charts. Then, to add insult to injury, a guy like Russell will say ‘if gold had kept up with inflation, it would be $2,500 by now’.
Oh yeah, so why is it just $1,750, amidst an environment of collapsing currencies and soaring commodities?
Given that the gold market has been viciously suppressed for years, the only way we’ll EVER get to the market-clearing price will be powerful “overbought” surges as the Cartel is broken, which I assure you it WILL be, just at the London Gold Pool and EVERY attempt to dominate gold with FIAT currency in the history of mankind has!
Readers, IGNORE ANY AND ALL GOLD TOP CALLERS, whether they are referring to the “short-term”, the “intermediate-term”, or the “long-term”. Gold and silver should be owned in PHYSICAL form (preferably) or via RELIABLE PROXIES such as goldmoney.com and the closed-end funds CEF, GTU, SVRZF, PHYS, and PSLV. They should NEVER be sold, and by NEVER I mean so far into the future that, for all intents and purposes, NEVER as pertains to nearly ALL investment horizons.
Don’t listen to the “bad guys” such as Prechter and Nadler, who have AGENDAS related to their perma-bearish (and perma-WRONG) calls, and don’t listen to the good guys like Richard Russell when they tell you charts look “overbought.” GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOT INVESTMENTS TO BUY AND SELL, THEY ARE MONEY TO BE HELD TO PROTECT YOURSELF against the accelerating collapse of global fiat currencies.
Once again, investments in PHYSICAL gold and silver CANNOT LOSE, and yes I am well aware of the dangers of making unhedged investment forecasts. But I am not SELLING you anything, I am helping you to PROTECT YOURSELF – that is my only agenda.
If you buy PHYSICAL gold and silver, you WILL beat the Cartel AND PROTECT YOURSELF, perhaps even become very rich in the process. Conversely, if you don’t you will likely lose the majority of your real wealth, period.
And I’m not talking about gold mining shares, by the way, which are in fact INVESTMENTS that must be carefully considered. I’m talking about REAL, PHYSICAL gold and silver, which are, IRREFUTABLY, for 5,000 years of human history, MONEY!
OK, that would have been a good end to this RANT, but while writing it I was sent an article so despicable that I’m thankful I didn’t eat lunch today. I have seen a lot of disgusting things come out of the U.S. government in recent years, but NOTHING compares to how low it has sunk here.
Per this article, the U.S. government has been active in shutting down internet gambling sites under the guise that it is immoral, but just a year later are GOING INTO THE INTERNET GAMBLING BUSINESS THEMSELVES!
Not only are they hypocrites, but abject morons if they believe encouraging GAMBLING, in which the HOUSE ALWAYS WINS, will somehow improve the economy. Gambling is one of the most ruthless forms of exploitation known to man, particularly of poor people that HOPE gambling will save them. It is one of the most degenerative forms of “entertainment” in the world, is highly addictive, and, to boot, can be easily manipulated to make it even more unwinnable. My god, can you imagine anyone TRUSTING that a U.S. GOVERNMENT-run POKER WEBSITE will be HONEST?
I thought that the California-led initiative to make marijuana legal under the guise of “increasing tax revenues” was off the charts ridiculous (as all it does is suck badly needed income out of the hands of the poor), but encouraging ONLINE GAMBLING? There aren’t words to describe my disgust at how low, and misguided, the government’s priorities have become.
By the way, you may be wondering why I haven’t put the link to the article higher up in this RANT, as usually I’d put it right up front to give you some context for my commentary. However, in this case I had to save the WORST for LAST, which in this case relates to the particular state that will be first to initiate this disgusting practice. I’d say “yep, you guessed it”, but no in your wildest dreams you wouldn’t believe where the first state-run internet gambling site will be initiated.
….and the winner is…..
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA!
Andrew C. Hoffman, CFA
San Diego Torrey Hills Capital
B (720) 350-4130
C (917) 324-7602